KREDSLØB: Major milestones for the future
We provide Kredsløb with strategic guidance on what to invest in, how much to invest, and when to invest in future green district heating systems.
The goal is to secure a sustainable heat supply beyond 2030, when Kredsløb’s agreement with Ørsted for heat from the Studstrup Plant expires.
Key milestones are in place
Ensuring a Triple Bottom Line
Since 2021, Added Values has been supporting Kredsløb in solving the "simple" challenge: "What should replace the current heat supply from the Studstrup plant when the heat contract with Ørsted expires in 2030?"
The collaboration between Kredsløb and Added Values has laid the foundation for securing Aarhus’s Future Green Heat System.
The outcome is a system that involves a massive electrification of the heating sector, phasing out fossil fuels and large volumes of biomass in favor of sustainable energy sources.
An Intensive Process with High Engagement and Involvement
The development of the overall roadmap for Aarhus’s Future Green District Heating was carried out through an intensive analytical process with strong attention and involvement from the project manager, executive leadership, and Kredsløb’s board. This included workshops with the board focusing on exploring the consequences of various priorities and technology options.
Kredsløb’s three bottom lines Economy, Climate & Environment, and Energy Security played a key role in communication between technical experts and decision-makers.
To help present the highly detailed calculations and results, a set of high-level performance indicators were developed, directly addressing these three bottom lines.
Examples include: total heat production cost, heat production price, price volatility, total investment, CO₂ capture and emissions, share of biomass in district heating, fuel mix, ambient energy use, and ancillary services potential.
Model-based calculations enable stress testing
The use of Added Values’ techno-economic modeling tool, AVPlan, has been a cornerstone in evaluating and concretely assessing the future setup.
In Aarhus, the starting point was a broad consideration of all realistic solution options — including the internal competition between investments in production, thermal storage, and the district heating network. This complexity is modeled in AVPlan to ensure a robust and flexible integrated system, where, for example, fluctuations in heat prices are minimized despite variations in market conditions.
Illustration source (available in Danish): Kredsløb
The illustration shows a sketch of the overall district heating system in Aarhus, which consists partly of various sites with existing and planned production facilities and heat storage units, and partly of a branched transmission network that supplies the individual exchanger stations, which in turn supply the local distribution networks (not shown).